Ground Motion Prediction Equation – GMPE

The goal of the CRONOS project is, within Component 2, to develop Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) for the area of Croatia. Performing GMPE requires a high-quality dataset of earthquake-induced ground motions covering a wide range of magnitudes and distances.

In the work of Uglešić et al. (2022), the GMPE model “Regionally adjusted ground motion model: Case study of the ML6.2 (Mw6.4) Petrinja (Croatia) 2020 earthquake“ was derived based on the BSHAP database (Šalić et al., 2017).

The derived model was compared with a similar model by Bora et al. (2014) and newer GMPE models at the bedrock level for earthquake scenario Mw6.4 and 4 different epicentral distances. The problem with the mentioned model is that the database of strong earthquakes for Croatia was not used, but BSHAP data, in which there are only a few recorded earthquakes from Croatia, mostly of moderate magnitude. Also, the model does not include an amplification model that covers linear and non-linear effects. For this reason, a hybrid empirical model (HEM-GMPE) will be performed by the end of the project.

Hybrid Empirical Method (HEM)

By the end of the project, a hybrid empirical model (HEM-GMPE) will be developed based on the data of recorded and simulated ground motions required due to the lack of data on ground motions for earthquakes of large magnitudes, as well as other defined seismological parameters needed to perform attenuation relations.

The results will be displayed on this page.

Nonlinear amplification model for Croatia

In the paper of Stanko and Markušić (2024), a nonlinear amplification model was derived for Croatia, which is based on three parameters of the local soil: Vs30, the natural frequency of the soil and the depth to the bedrock H800.

The derived model is intended to be integrated into the attenuation relation for Croatia, but it can also be combined with the GMPE model of Uglešić et al. (2022). The figure shows the comparison of the AF model for various cases of local parameters in comparison with the AF models and the seismic code Eurocode 8 (current and revised).


Bora, S.S., Scherbaum, F., Kuehn, N. and Stafford, P., 2014. Fourier spectral-and duration models for the generation of response spectra adjustable to different source-, propagation-, and site conditions. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering12, pp.467-493.

Salic, R., Sandikkaya, M.A., Milutinovic, Z., Gulerce, Z., Duni, L., Kovacevic, V., Markusic, S., Mihaljevic, J., Kuka, N., Kaludjerovic, N. and Kotur, N., 2017. BSHAP project strong ground motion database and selection of suitable ground motion models for the Western Balkan Region. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering15, pp.1319-1343.

Stanko, D. and Markušić, S., 2024. Site amplification model for Croatia estimated by random vibration theory-based site response analysis. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering179, p.108547.

Uglešić, J.S., Skendrović, F., Lončar, I., Markušić, S. and Stanko, D., 2022. Regionally adjusted ground motion model: Case study of the ML6. 2 (Mw6. 4) Petrinja (Croatia) 2020 earthquake. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica66(3-4), pp.162-186.